Skepticism Vs rationality/logic
I recently did a course on big data in the popular online lecture website coursera.com. The course had a big emphasis on the role of big data in today's world and how to take advantage of this. You can see the impact of the availability of data in the social networks. You see so many articles citing so many studies and statistics. Of course the inference here is that big data is one of the reasons for the sudden proliferation in citations of the statistical nature (as opposed to the only reason). I also have noticed a sudden rise in the claims to rationality and a rational approach to thinking in my immediate near sighted vision. I will not quote any statistics in this essay and my reason for so many disclaimers is that I do not want to give the impression that the trends that I notice everyday by any means capture the bigger picture.
A true skeptic will always question everything. The God question has been one of the many questions that scientists have tried to answer in recorded history. The latest method of course is the large collider of CERN. There have been huge inference engines that have been asked the question and the cliched joke of getting a huge number in answer is a well used one. A believer/religious person/other irrelevant names would say He/She exists while the rationalist/non-believer/science person would claim that given the evidence He/She does not exist. A skeptic however would honestly say 'I don't know'. Sometimes this is the most difficult thing to do. Being a skeptic I really don't know but I like to have someone to call on in difficult times so I fake it.
Until recently I was a rationalist myself but seeing this proliferation of statistics and contradicting data that is so convoluted and confusing that you cannot make sense of anything, I became a skeptic.
Confusing logic with being right
I see this particular gem quiet often these days (but I am in no way claiming that this is a worldwide trend). Being a person with a logical, analytical and scientific frame of thought should not be confused with being a person who is mostly right. All logic is based on some basic assumption and this assumption in itself is usually based on some empirical/experimental data. For example, in the movie Thuppaki, the hero Vijay assumes that the baddie he has captured will act in a particular way. He further assumes that the members of the organization he is trying to destroy have no prior knowledge of each other. The known facts (not assumptions) are that the tandem attack is going to happen on a particular date (time not known), and there are 12 baddies attacking at 12 locations. If you follow the original assumption, only the mid level baddie who Vijay has captured knows all the 11 other baddies. Vijay and his 11 team mates set about following this mid level baddie. So the logical assumption here would be to follow baddie no.1 while peeling 1 of the team for each new baddie. But they actually split into half for each baddie (6+6, 3+3+3+3...) which is surprising but still logical if you disregard assumption 1. Another example is the inference that is being made that Delhi is the worst place for a woman right now or that it is not the worst. For me as a skeptic when I see a news report that a girl has been raped the only inference I take from it is just that - that a girl has been raped. Sometimes I think I am a heartless person because the immediate question that follows is "Is there anything I can do about it?' and mostly the answer is no. So I forget about it. It seems insensitive to say "Sorry, but that piece of news is not important. I am more concerned about when a movie I'd like to see is getting released." But there you go, I have laid bare my thought process. Because sitting here 9000 miles away I really can't find a way to help.
I have more thoughts to share but the dichotomy of writing for myself and writing for a reader has stopped me. I figure I am more selfish and attention seeking than I would care to admit and I will continue this post when I see some interest in it.
If you would like to see a more detailed explanation of the Thuppaki problem it is coming soon.
